Tax revenues declared by central govt for demonetization period

​Just watched the press conference by our union Finance Minister, in which he presented direct and indirect tax figures (trends), supporting the assertion that the economy has grown in the months of November and December 2016, despite the demonetization. That’s the biggest issue with statistics – the conclusion/interpretation which can be drawn from them depends not on the numbers, but on the presentator and the way of presentation. To the specific to the matter in hand, the FM said that the tax revenues for April-December 2016 have increased compared to April-December 2015. My point – isn’t that obvious? We had good rains this season and a drought last year. There are pay commission recommendations. Tax revenues will naturally increase in the period given by FM, compared to the period he mentioned. He also said that tax revenues of central govt for Dec 2016 have increased compared to Nov 2016. Again, isn’t it the most obvious thing? The economy suffered massively in November. It recovered marginally in December. The revenues of December will naturally be more than those of November, not to mention the wedding season, Christmas and New Year celebrations in December. Most importantly, tax revenues cannot be directly correlated with the state of economy because there are so many small businesses which generate massive income and employment, but do not pay taxes because they are in unorganized sector. These small businesses in fact get much more affected due to such policy changes. What I’m interested in knowing is the income generated (not tax revenues) in Nov 2016 compared to October 2016 and the amount of old currency deposited in banks/post offices by 31st Dec, both the figures are not declared by the RBI/govt. Request you all not to base your opinions on mere numbers but analyse them first. I’m working on a comprehensive analysis of the demonetization policy, let’s see how much time I take.


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